1,960 picks of hope and regret
"Started pts" = points a player scored in the weeks his manager actually started him, that season. It rewards picks that produced when it counted and ignores bench-warming (pre-2018 data only recorded starters, which is exactly this metric).
What each round is worth
Round 13+ pooled. The cliff after round 2 is real: by round 5 the average pick returns less than half a first-rounder.
Same curve, by era
Raw points inflate across eras, so each era gets its own scale â compare the shape, not the heights.
Draft slot myth check
| Slot | Avg finish | Titles | Playoff trips | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.79 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | 3.93 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 1 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | 5.43 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | 4.93 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | 4.71 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | 3.71 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
Slot 8 has produced 5 of 14 titles. Small sample â but tell that to whoever drafts first. (2020â21 slots use the real rounds-4+ draft order; rounds 1â3 those years were keeper slots.)
ð Greatest late-round steals
Round 9 or later, ranked by started points that season. Keeper-flagged picks are excluded â keeping a stud at a late-round cost is savvy, but it isn't drafting.
| # | Season | Rd | Pick | Manager | Player | Pos | Started pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2021 | 10 | 73 | Cody | Justin Herbert | QB | 321.0 |
| 2 | 2020 | 10 | 77 | Cody | Stefon Diggs | WR | 306.0 |
| 3 | 2024 | 15 | 115 | Drew | Jayden Daniels | QB | 286.2 |
| 4 | 2022 | 9 | 65 | Bill | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 267.6 |
| 5 | 2019 | 16 | 122 | Matt | Lamar Jackson | QB | 267.0 |
| 6 | 2012 | 10 | 75 | Bill | Matt Ryan | QB | 260.0 |
| 7 | 2021 | 12 | 94 | Cody | Deebo Samuel | WR | 251.0 |
| 8 | 2012 | 10 | 74 | Drew | Robert Griffin III | QB | 250.0 |
| 9 | 2023 | 9 | 71 | Drew | Evan Engram | TE | 230.3 |
| 10 | 2023 | 19 | 146 | Rick | Raheem Mostert | RB | 229.0 |
| 11 | 2025 | 14 | 109 | Neil | Drake Maye | QB | 228.1 |
| 12 | 2024 | 11 | 82 | Cody | Brock Bowers | TE | 227.0 |
ðŠĶ First-round funerals
First and second rounders with the least to show for it. A zero can mean injured in week one, traded away, or drafted and instantly regretted â the server doesn't judge, it just counts. (Pre-2022 trades can't be verified; ESPN purged them.)
| # | Season | Overall | Manager | Player | Pos | Started pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2014 | 1 | Neil | Johnny Manziel | QB | 0.0 |
| 2 | 2017 | 3 | Cody | Antonio Brown | WR | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2018 | 3 | Cody | Le'Veon Bell | RB | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2017 | 16 | Chris | Michael Thomas | WR | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2017 | 1 | Chris | David Johnson | RB | 0.0 |
| 6 | 2016 | 14 | Matt | Jamaal Charles | RB | 0.0 |
| 7 | 2017 | 14 | Cody | Jay Ajayi | RB | 0.0 |
| 8 | 2013 | 11 | Neil | Roddy White | WR | 1.0 |
| 9 | 2015 | 8 | Bill | C.J. Anderson | RB | 3.0 |
| 10 | 2016 | 5 | Chris | Adrian Peterson | RB | 4.0 |
| 11 | 2014 | 3 | Cody | Adrian Peterson | RB | 8.0 |
| 12 | 2016 | 15 | Neil | Doug Martin | RB | 11.0 |
#1 overall picks, graded
ð = keeper occupying the slot (2020â2024 rounds 1â3 were keeper rounds), not a live pick. Keeper accounting is under league review.
| Season | Manager | Player | Started pts | Manager's finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Cody | Arian Foster | 229 | 1 ð |
| 2013 | Mike | Adrian Peterson | 194 | 7 |
| 2014 | Neil | Johnny Manziel | 0 | 8 |
| 2015 | Rick | Adrian Peterson | 217 | 4 |
| 2016 | Drew | Antonio Brown | 193 | 7 |
| 2017 | Chris | David Johnson | 0 | 8 |
| 2018 | Rick | Todd Gurley II | 360 | 7 |
| 2019 | Cody | Saquon Barkley | 213 | 3 |
| 2020 | Drew | Kyler Murray ð | 327 | 4 |
| 2021 | Chris | Saquon Barkley ð | 74 | 6 |
| 2022 | Bill | Najee Harris ð | 130.1 | 1 ð |
| 2023 | Mike | Derrick Henry ð | 230.5 | 5 |
| 2024 | Chris | Christian McCaffrey ð | 47.8 | 4 |
| 2025 | Rick | Malik Nabers | 57.1 | 7 |
Season draft boards
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