War Room · draft prep
The shared prep page
14 seasons of tendencies and cutlines, updated through 2025 — the 2026 draft is in the books (the board), so this is now next year's homework. Same data for all eight of us — bring your own conclusions to the draft.
What it takes to make the playoffs
Typical cutline (last 3 seasons)
6–8 wins
4th seed averaged 1,792 PF ≈ 131/week
League weekly average (2025)
133.9
a 150+ week wins ~89% of the time
Regular-season #1 wins it all…
4/14
the regular season guarantees nothing here
Waiver adds by playoff teams
25
vs 12 by teams that missed (per season, Sleeper era)
The playoff bar, by season
Scouting reports — last three drafts
Early mix = position share of each manager's rounds 1–3 real picks (keepers excluded), 2024–2026. First QB = average round they take their first quarterback. All eight of us, same treatment.
Chris
- Early rounds: WR 50% · RB 33% · TE 17%
- First QB: round 5.7 (career: 5.9)
- First TE: round 8.7
Bill
- Early rounds: RB 50% · TE 33% · WR 17%
- First QB: round 6.0 (career: 5.7)
- First TE: round 3.3
Cody
- Early rounds: WR 50% · RB 33% · QB 17%
- First QB: round 3.7 (career: 7.7)
- First TE: round 5.7
- Reaching for QBs earlier than he used to — expect an early strike.
Mike
- Early rounds: WR 33% · QB 33% · TE 17% · RB 17%
- First QB: round 3.0 (career: 3.0)
- First TE: round 10.0
Matt
- Early rounds: RB 67% · QB 17% · WR 17%
- First QB: round 7.3 (career: 6.9)
- First TE: round 6.7
Drew
- Early rounds: RB 67% · TE 33%
- First QB: round 5.7 (career: 7.0)
- First TE: round 3.7
Neil
- Early rounds: RB 60% · WR 40%
- First QB: round 9.0 (career: 5.3)
- First TE: round 9.7
- Waiting longer on QB than his career norm — punishable with a late run.
Rick
- Early rounds: WR 50% · RB 33% · TE 17%
- First QB: round 14.3 (career: 7.2)
- First TE: round 4.7
- Waiting longer on QB than his career norm — punishable with a late run.
Draft slot cheat sheet
If the draft order gods hand you a slot, here's its history (all 14 seasons):
| Slot | Avg finish | Titles | Playoff rate | History says |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.79 | 3 | 50% | unremarkable — draft well anyway |
| 2 | 5.0 | 1 | 43% | unremarkable — draft well anyway |
| 3 | 3.93 | 3 | 64% | unremarkable — draft well anyway |
| 4 | 3.5 | 1 | 71% | the quiet sweet spot |
| 5 | 5.43 | 0 | 29% | the tar pit — avoid if the gods allow |
| 6 | 4.93 | 1 | 43% | unremarkable — draft well anyway |
| 7 | 4.71 | 0 | 43% | titleless in 14 tries |
| 8 | 3.71 | 5 | 57% | the golden chair — 5 titles |
What a title actually takes
- Champions average +10.1 points/week vs the league — 127/wk is the bar.
- Average champion seed: 2.1. 5 titles came from seed 3 or lower.
- Playoff cutline, last 3 years: 6–8 wins, ~131 points/week.
- Titles by draft slot are spread across 6 different slots — draft position matters less than we argue it does.